Government delays to reform children’s social care could have a long-term financial impact on the taxpayer, according to a new expert report commissioned by the National Children's Bureau and four other leading UK children’s charities - Action for Children, Barnardo’s, The Children’s Society and the NSPCC.
The analysis, undertaken by economics and advanced data consultants Alma Economics, warns that the Government is set to spend an additional £1 billion on children's social care over 10 years unless they speed up the implementation of their reform plans.
These increased costs are largely the result of a higher number of children needing to be in care, caused by a lack of comprehensive early support during the two-year delay in rolling out the reform plan.
The analysis marks the one-year anniversary of the Independent Review of Children’s Social Care, which published its findings in May 2022, calling for immediate investment of £2.6bn to address the existing crisis in children’s social care and a revolution in Family Help to prevent children entering care where possible.
In February 2023, the Government published its strategy and consultation on children’s social care, Stable Homes, Built on Love, which committed to adopting most but not all the recommendations from the Care Review.
This strategy was published against a backdrop of increasing concern about the crisis in children’s social care, particularly the murders of Arthur Labinjo-Hughes and Star Hobson. Since then, other devastating cases have come to light which demonstrate how crucial it is that children are protected and supported.
The Government approach will also see them testing reforms in a small number of local authorities, meaning that most areas will not get the changes and investment they desperately need to support and protect children for at least two years.
However, children’s charities say that what is needed in the intervening two years is immediate funding for family help services – ranging from children’s centres and youth clubs, to targeted support with issues like drug and alcohol misuse – as these mean families get help early enough to stop problems spiralling out of control.
The Independent Review of Children’s Social Care presented a once in a generation opportunity to put the voices of children, families and communities at the heart of a new coordinated and fully integrated system that would step in early to protect and nurture vulnerable children before their problems escalate. Yet one year on from its publication there is still a lack of urgency. As this report makes clear, delays in fully implementing the review’s findings risk costing the taxpayer millions of pounds more than it should. Inaction in changing systems, improving outcomes and allowing more of our children to fulfil their potential, has a human and a financial cost we cannot afford to ignore.
Anna Feuchtwang
CEO NCB
The report demonstrates the cumulative cost of the Government’s confirmed two-year delay to implement Stable Homes Built on Love:
- Total cumulative costs to the taxpayer of delaying full implementation of the Independent Review of Children's Social Care by two years: £1bn over ten years until 2033/2034 or £2.6bn over 20 years until 2043/2044
By 2027/28, it is forecast that 10,500 additional children will be in care due to the Government delaying implementation for two years. Although this is expected to level out at around 4,500 assuming the Government implements the Stable Homes, Built on Love strategy across England.
In addition, Alma’s analysis estimates that if the Government’s reform plans are delayed two years, as currently proposed, there will be an additional ‘social cost’ of around £500 million per year over 30 years compared to the full and timely implementation of the Care Review.
The social costs stem from a greater number of children in the care system facing lower wellbeing and a loss of productivity in later life.
You can read the report in full here.
Alma also provided economic analysis for the Independent Review of Children’s Social Care, the final report of which signalled a “once in a generation opportunity to reset children’s social care”. It concluded that the current system was skewed to crisis intervention and as such produced unacceptably poor outcomes for children as well as rising costs.
It recommended:
- A revolution in family help so that families in need receive more responsive, respectful and effective support
- A just and decisive protection system to reduce the risk of harm to children
- More support to bring wider family members and friends into decision making
- Children to have a more powerful voice in decisions that affect them
- Equity and justice for care experienced people
- Investment to help attract, retain and resource a high quality social care workforce
- A National Children’s Social Care Framework to provide direction and purpose for government action
- A five-year £2.6bn reform programme “delivered at pace” to implement these findings
“The time is for a reset is now, and there is not a moment to lose”, the report concluded.
One year on from the publication of the Care Review, children’s social care is still in crisis. The deep problems within the system will not go away in the next year or the year after.
While these costs cannot now be reversed, there is still time for the Government to step up to avoid even bigger losses in the future. This Government must take bold action now to tackle this and any future Government must be ready to pick up the baton of long-term reform. That is why we are calling on all political parties to commit to a full reform of children’s social care. The children and families who need vital support deserve nothing less.
Peter Wanless
CEO NSPCC
Children’s social care is on its knees following a decade of cuts to council budgets. The care review has given the government a roadmap for reform, but foot-dragging and short-termism could mean the problems and the costs of the system continue to mount up. Our research shows how it’s short-sighted financially and deeply destructive socially not to give councils the means to properly invest in early help services that prevent problems worsening. Every day we delay reform, the costs for all of us will keep spiralling, but especially to the thousands and thousands of vulnerable children being needlessly failed every year.
Paul Carberry
CEO Action for Children
Without urgent action to reform children’s social care we will miss this once in a generation opportunity to address the fundamental inequalities that exist for children who can’t live with their birth parents. It’s simply not good enough that nearly half of children in care have a mental health disorder and four in 10 young people leaving care are not in education, employment or training by the time they reach 19. These figures show that the delay in implementing vital recommendations in the independent review also comes at a huge cost to the taxpayer, and we urge the Government to act now to get the system right for these children and truly start to ‘level up’ their opportunities in adulthood.
Lynn Perry
CEO Barnardo's
One year on from The Independent Review of Children’s Social Care these figures highlight the urgency for social care reform to help struggling families and children who desperately need vital support. Continued delays by the Government will mean we are stuck with a social care system that fails to intervene before problems reach crisis point and leaves too many children and young people unprotected and exposed to unacceptable risks. Apart from the significant impact on children, families and society, these figures also highlight the financial burden to the taxpayer which the Government simply cannot ignore. Immediate action is required to implement the Review's findings so we can see a reformed social care system fit for purpose.
Mark Russell
CEO The Children's Society