Groundbreaking NCB and Kingston University research sheds light on evolving and multifaceted demand for children’s social care services

• New research, led by Kingston University and the National Children’s Bureau (NCB), carried out analysis of 3.6 million social work assessments to identify twelve common categories of demand present across children’s social care in England and the intervention pathways and outcomes associated with these.
• The study reveals an increasingly complex picture of demand for children’s social care services between 2014 and 2021, with a disproportionate rise in child mental health problems, extra-familial harm, and complexities around parental mental health.
• With children’s social care under increasing pressure, this research will help local authorities understand local demand and adapt provision to better support children and families.

Publication of research led by Kingston University and the National Children’s Bureau (NCB) provides an unprecedented picture of national demand for children’s social care services in England.  It examines the relationship between assessed risk factors, social care intervention and educational outcomes, and offers a unique evidence-based picture of how the support and interventions for children and families have changed over time and the impact that these have had on children’s outcomes.

Social workers record any combination of 40 common risk factors when they carry out a child and family assessment. However, until now, little has been known about what combinations are most prevalent for which children, and how children's characteristics and needs affect what happens after an assessment is completed.

The two-year quantitative study, funded by the Nuffield Foundation, categorised social care assessments and linked these to a range of social care and education outcomes, including child protection and care interventions, re-referrals and re-entries to care, school exclusions, and educational attainment.

Researchers identified 12 categories of demand representing the most common combinations of risk factors assessed by social workers. These categories can now be used by local authorities as a way to better understand the challenges facing their local population and adapt service provision accordingly.

Further analysis explored how outcomes differed based on children’s characteristics, their category of need, and the type of provision they received.

The report finds:

• Single-factor domestic abuse and violence was found to be the most prevalent category of demand, accounting for a fifth of all cases.
• The proportion of children assessed with multiple risk factors increased from 2014-21, with a disproportionate rise in those affected by child mental health problems, extra-familial harm, and complexities around parental mental health.
• A combination of concerns about parental mental health and concerns about either alcohol or drug misuse was the second most prevalent form of demand.
• Average rates of re-referral were 30% over 12 months and 59% over six years. For some categories of demand, these rates were significantly higher and children in more complex categories of demand were more likely to be re-referred and to have a repeat child protection plan.
• Children in the ‘risks outside the home’ category were more likely to be older, male and/or Black, and accommodated in care and less likely to have a child protection plan than the average child assessed by children’s social care.
• Children at risk of domestic violence and abuse were more likely to have a child protection plan if assessed with other risk factors, particularly neglect.

DOWNLOAD AND READ THE EXECUTIVE SUMMARY AND THE FULL REPORT HERE 

With the challenges facing children and families increasing and the absence of sufficient resources to address the variety of demand, many children will not receive the right kind of help early enough and will return into the system when they are older and their problems are more entrenched. Substantial investment is needed in preventative services and specialist interventions which are designed with the needs of the whole child and their family circumstances in mind.

This conclusion is particualrly pertinent in light of the findings published last year of another collaborative research project, conducted by Pro Bono Economics and commissioned by Action for Children, Barnardo’s, The Children’s Society, NCB and NSPCC, which found that £4 in every £5 of additional spending in 2021-22 went on late intervention services.

Local authorities in England are encouraged to undertake their own demand analysis, using tools available on the project website to inform strategic decisions and the design of local children’s services.

The report also calls for policymakers and local services to respond to the findings through:

• An increased role for, and investment in, youth services and child and adolescent mental health services to prevent a rise in numbers of young people with complex needs.
• Better training for practitioners that acknowledges complex links between social and economic circumstances and racial and ethnic disparities in assessment.
• Enacting social policies that improve financial and socioeconomic circumstances of families.